In
the past two decades, many African countries transitioned from
autocratic or military rule to democratic forms of government, and the
continent has witnessed progress in development and governance trends in
many areas. Unfortunately, as the continent seemed set to consolidate
these gains, growing security threats have emerged that could undermine
peace and prosperity, especially if governance structures do not become
more effective in meeting citizens’ needs.
Security
Surely Africa has experienced liberation wars, civil wars and other
sorts of conflict and violence in the past, but the particularities of
insecurity in today’s Africa stem from the changing nature of current
security threats and vulnerabilities. Unlike in previous eras, the
proliferation of non-state actors is forcing African militaries and
security services to engage in asymmetric warfare for which they may not
have been prepared. In Sub Saharan Africa, conventional warfare or
interstate conflict has been on the decline, whereas intrastate
conflicts have been on the rise. Between 2002 and 2005, the number of
state based conflicts in Sub Saharan Africa dropped by 60 percent.
However, in 2005, more than 50 percent of the world’s intrastate
conflicts occurred in Africa, even as that represented a sharp decline
in the number of wars since the 1990s.1 Whether in Somalia, South Sudan,
North Eastern Nigeria, Darfur, Central African Republic, Northern Mali,
or Eastern Congo, insecurity in today’s Africa emerges within national
borders, even if in some instances exacerbated by non-state actors
moving across what we all know to be very porous national borders. Not
too surprisingly, the triggers of insecurity tend to blur the lines, as
one frequently finds that behind these acts of violence are a mix of
characters with multiple agendas ranging from the mildly political to
the criminal and the religious. In most cases, there is a confluence of
elements that identify with grievances in all three sectors, hence
further complicating the resolution of conflict once it breaks out.
There is a growing and disturbing convergence and connection among
networks of organized crime, drug trafficking, illicit activities, money
laundering, kidnapping, and terrorism. For example, failing economic
development, high youth unemployment, the lack of industries and job
opportunities, limited education, and low access to participation in
governance provide the breeding ground (or swamps) in which extremist
groups thrive. Collectively, as African countries fight these groups, we
must also focus on draining the swamps infested with elements that
facilitate recruitment of future extremists and hence exacerbate human
insecurity.
In the last decade, deep insecurity has been thrust upon African
countries by transnational terrorist groups or jihadists that seek to
use hitherto ungoverned spaces in some countries, notably in the Sahel
and the Horn, as launch pads for attacks against domestic and
international targets. As we saw in last Friday’s attack in Bamako,
Mali, or with Boko Haram in North Eastern Nigeria (which now calls
itself the Islamic State of West Africa), extremist organizations
operating in Africa are eager to build alliances with similar
organizations in other parts of the world, notably Al Qaeda and the
Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). In many ways, the terrorism
threat in Sub Saharan Africa that has flared up in recent years is
fuelled by the global spread of extremist ideologies that exploit social
media and its easily accessible information sharing environment. The
Sahel region, as well as the Horn of Africa is paying a price for a
jihadism that has trickled over from the Middle East, and is now fuelled
exponentially by the proliferation of light weapons across the
continent, and the aftershocks of the Libyan crisis and the chaotic
demise of the Muammar Gaddafi regime. It is common knowledge that
AlQaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQMI) was launched initially by elements
that fought to overthrow the Algerian government in the early 1990s,
but in recent years, have consolidated their activities across the Sahel
region, particularly in northern Mali. Similarly, Boko Haram with its
origins in North Eastern Nigeria is now having a devastating impact on
the neighbouring countries of Niger Republic, Chad and my own country
Cameroon. In the same manner, the activities of AlShabaab in Somalia are
having a destabilizing effect on the security and economic prospects of
Kenya and other countries in East Africa and the Horn.
I would like to briefly discuss a few of the most prominent sources of insecurity in Sub Saharan Africa at the moment.
Boko Haram in Nigeria:
According to the Global Terrorism Index report, Boko Haram 2 is the
deadliest terrorist group in the world (ahead of ISIS, the Taliban and
AlShabab), having murdered close to 7000 people in terrorist attacks in
Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger Republic. In 2014, 23 percent of all
terrorism related deaths worldwide occurred in northern Nigeria.
Although we do not have complete figures for how many people Boko Haram
has killed in 2015, the terrorist group has dramatically increased its
cross border attacks into Chad, Cameroon and Niger, with a spate of
suicide bombings earlier this year killing at least 53 people in
N’Djamena, the Chadian capital.
AlShabaab in Somalia:
Another Sub Saharan African country, Somalia, continues to struggle to
combat Islamic terrorism as AlShabaab seeks to undermine various
incarnations of the Somali government since 2009. Despite suffering
major setbacks in 2014 and being pushed out of all the major cities of
the country, AlShabaab killed more people in terrorist attacks this past
year than ever before at least 800 people in more than 400 attacks.
AlShabaab has also attempted to strike outside of Somalia, killing
people in attacks in Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya.
Northern Mali:
Despite the push back from Malians backed by other African forces and
French military that routed out Islamist militant forces (Operation
Serval) in 2013, Northern Mali, remains a hotbed for Islamic terrorist
activity. As 4 the recent attack on the Hotel Radisson Blu in Bamako
last Friday showed, terrorist groups in Mali, notably Ansar Dine and Al
Mourabitoun (which has claimed responsibility for the attack)5, have
begun to attack “soft targets” such as hotels, cafes, and supermarkets.
Development
In the past two decades, gross national income (GNI) per capita has
almost doubled in many countries across Africa. According to the World
Bank, the International Monetary Fund and other international financial
institutions, many African countries have taken steps to improve the
environment for doing business, as a result of which the costs and time
required to start a business have declined substantially. Five African
countries, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, DRC, Senegal, and Togo, even rank in
the top 10 countries worldwide for enacting reforms that make it easier
to do business. Surely, the continent’s abundance of natural resources
is driving some economic gains. Africa remains a viable trading partner
with a multiplicity of untapped mineral resources. For example, Guinea,
with a population of 12 million people, is the world's second largest
producer of bauxite and has rich deposits of diamonds and gold. Guinea
comes after Australia in bauxite production, but at the same time,
maintains the highest bauxite reserves in the world, far ahead of
Australia. Ghana and South Africa figure prominently among the top ten
gold producing countries in the world. Five African countries Cote
d'lvoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Togo are among the top 10 world
producers of cocoa. Five others Ethiopia, Cote d'lvoire, Uganda,
Cameroon and Togo are among the top ten world producers of coffee. Gulf
of Guinea countries that include Nigeria, Gabon, Congo Brazzaville,
Equatorial Guinea and Angola, account for close to 20 percent of oil
imports into the United States; and new technology in oil exploration
and production is contributing to new oil discoveries in countries such
as Mauritania, Chad, Ghana, Cote d'lvoire, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania,
Mozambique, and even Niger. Take a look at the mineral map of the DRC:
cobalt, coal, natural gas, nickel, diamonds, gemstones, gold, water
resources for hydroelectric purposes, to name a few. Today’s era of
globalization has witnessed a boom of new technologies. Financial flows,
together with innovation, create markets that foster growth; and one of
the biggest growing sectors on the continent is the information and
communications technology sector (ICT). Several reports indicate that in
2014, globally, investments in the ICT sector only increased in Africa.
Countries such as Kenya,
Ghana, Rwanda, Tanzania, South Africa and Nigeria have made huge
investments in ICT infrastructure, working in partnership with
international agencies, ICT vendors and researchers. This is no
surprise, as Africa is also home to 200 million young people between the
ages of 15 and 24, a number that could double by 2045 according to the
African Development Bank. This age group is the biggest consumer of
technological goods, and as they grow in numbers, so does the demand in
this sector. The demographics, if properly managed, are a real asset for
Africa. The grievance that many Africans carry, and rightly so, is that
these rosy stories of macroeconomic trends and economic potential on
the African continent do not translate necessarily into improvements in
the wellbeing of ordinary citizens. Too many Africans still live below
the poverty line, youth unemployment is extremely high, corruption and
economic crimes are high, and investment in the social sectors of
health, education, and public welfare are very low. The bottom line is
that Africa is not a poor continent. Indeed, it is a rich and wealthy
continent both in terms of human capital and natural resources; but it
is the poor management of these resources that causes extreme poverty on
the continent, and an ever expanding gap between the rich and the poor.
Uneven distribution of economic gains contributes to insecurity as
disaffected citizens living in poverty may turn against the government
status quo. It is this excessive poverty, not just in economic terms but
also in access to political space, freedom, and the civil liberties
that most of the world takes for granted, that pushes young Africans to
seek greener pastures in other lands, sometimes through the hazards of
illegal migration and human trafficking, or that makes young people
vulnerable to the recruiter incentives of extremist movements. In this
regard, the youth population bulge I described earlier as an asset could
become a liability: while having a larger working age population should
increase public revenues that can be used to support societal needs, in
Africa high levels of unemployment translates into increases in the
number of disaffected young people that could be instrumental to
movements turned against the state. Speaking at the last conference on
migration held in Malta a few weeks ago, the President of Niger Republic
Mahamadou Issoufou stated that “over 100,000 illegal migrants from Sub
Saharan Africa cross Niger and the Sahara desert every year in search of
better livelihoods in Europe.” He listed the causes of such illicit
activity as linked to poverty, inequalities, and the deficits of
democracy, and then urged Europe and Africa to work together to create
conditions for people to feel they could lead decent lives in their home
countries.
Governance and Democracy
Political stability that is founded on institution driven effective
governance creates an enabling environment for sustainable economic
development and eliminating the conditions that serve as breeding
grounds for extremism. In authoritarian environments, investors must
worry that the rules on commercial transactions and other engagements
could always be changed overnight at the whims of one man or of a tiny
circle of oligarchs. Invariably, a government with questionable
legitimacy is less likely to build the national consensus needed to
deliver effective social services to citizens and generate or sustain
long term economic growth and development. On the contrary, such a
government devotes public resources to sustaining a system of patronage,
prebendalism and corruption, without which its stay in power becomes
tenuous. The development of strong democratic institutions and good
governance practices therefore contributes substantially to growth and
development. With the third wave of democratization that began after the
collapse of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, Africa saw the
independence of Namibia in 1989/1990, the end of apartheid and release
of Nelson Mandela in South Africa in 1991, and the fall of many military
and autocratic regimes. In fact, in 1990, Freedom House, which ranks
freedoms around the world, rated only four African countries Senegal,
Botswana, Mauritius, and the Gambia as partially free or democratic.
Today, Freedom House rates about 11 African countries as totally free
and another 19 as partially free, for a total of about 30. Indeed, many
African countries have made considerable progress in the past two
decades in renewing political leadership, conducting credible and
transparent elections, providing space for vibrant political parties and
civil society organizations, and creating new institutions that espouse
the rule of law, democracy and good governance. For example, the
African Union Charter on Democracy, Elections, and Governance (2007),
and sub-regional entities such as the Economic Community of West African
States (ECOWAS), Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and
the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have protocols that
promote free trade and allow for free movement of persons and goods,
hence promoting more open markets. In today's Africa, unlike two decades
ago, civil society is vibrant and seeks to play an advocacy role; human
rights organizations exist and regularly denounce the gross violations
of human rights by the dozen or so remaining autocratic regimes; and
independent media (that includes community based radio stations and
print media) provide opportunities for diverse viewpoints and dissenting
voices to be heard.
For example, through the first quarter of 2012, Senegal’s democracy was
tested by controversy over the candidacy of then incumbent President
Wade, viewed by many Senegalese as contrary to the term limits enshrined
in the country’s constitution. Thanks in large measure to effective
grassroots mobilization by Senegalese civil society, the media, youth
movements and political parties, the electoral process was safeguarded
and the country experienced a credible transition of power. Similarly,
in Burkina Faso in October 2014, when military strongman and long
serving Blaise Compaore tried to amend the country’s constitution to
extend his 27 years rule, he was chased out of office by a citizen led
revolt that was largely peaceful. Not surprisingly, in September this
year when remnants of Compaore’s supporters in the presidential guard
staged a coup against the transition process, citizens took to the
streets and with support from civil society, independent media, and the
armed forces of the country, foiled the coup attempt. The Senegal and
Burkina Faso examples are significant because they demonstrate that
other tenets of democracy are taking root across Africa, and when
properly mobilized can serve as a firewall to democratic backsliding.
It is against the backdrop of these significant political changes in
Africa that many Africans and friends of the continent lament and
condemn the backsliding observed in countries such as Burundi, Congo
Brazzaville and Rwanda, where leaders are undermining constitutional
rule by manipulating the rule of law to perpetuate themselves in office.
By so doing, these leaders shrink or close political space and open the
doors to violence and gross violations of human rights as citizens
suffocate under their heavy handedness and feel obliged to seek
alternativemeans of making their voices heard and their votes count.
Synthesis
In this 21st century, security, development, and governance are deeply
intertwined. In today’s very competitive globalizing world, only African
countries that are able to tackle all three challenges simultaneously
will do well; the nonperformers will invariably face backsliding and
rejection. Some countries on the continent are still plagued by issues
of corruption, shrinking political space and lack of credible political
transitions, and marginalization of its poorest communities. Without
effective political leadership and the appropriate delivery of public
services to citizens, the prerequisites for development would never be
met, and the Millennium Development Goals would remain a distant
illusion. To have sustained economic growth, Africa needs inclusive
economic institutions and viable political systems capable of creating
an enabling environment for private sector investments and exercising
proper oversight. In short, today’s debate is not just about having a
nation state in name; it is, and should be, more importantly, about how
the state is governed. In looking at the way forward, we must recognize
that Africa is a fast growing continent in which approximately 40
percent of the population is below 15 years old. In countries such as
Mali and Uganda, close to 50 percent of the population is below 15 years
old compared to only 20 percent in the USA and approximately 13 percent
for Germany. Africa is therefore a youthful continent. There is no
doubt in my mind that the youthful population of Africa is an asset to
the continent and the world if the continent’s political leaders can
create opportunities for these youth to find gainful employment and lead
meaningful lives. Africa calls for visionary leadership, and the world
has a vested interest in accompanying the continent in this search.
Friends of Africa and the continent’s population of approximately one
billion people continue to aspire to a better future one in which the
three challenges of security, development and good governance are
guaranteed. For these aspirations to come to fruition, the continent’s
leaders must commit to prioritizing these three areas and conducting
themselves as true servants of their people. They must also demonstrate
the ability to project Africa on the global stage such that this
beautiful continent can make its contribution to the world as part of
the global community of our very humanity. Thank you very much for your
time and attention.
When News Breaks Out, We Break In. (The 2014 Bloggies Finalist)
